A very strange country (re Skype, FCC and the Mobile industry)

Last week at VON we ended up having a lively discussion around “disrupting the wireless ecosystem”

I chose to be a bit provocative - and started with the following story

So - I visited a country recently, which had a very strange computer industry:
Due to regulatory history, there were only Four computer distribution chains. Which had shops all over the country. And chose which manufactures to sell and which models they promote. People were practically forced to buy from the four chains - no independent computer resellers or direct to consumer.

And the four distributors also controlled which software was installed on the computers - from the “Start menu” to the actual applications. On most computers, the full software stack was controlled by the distributors - users were not allowed to choose or download applications.

Not only that, but the “Four” also provided the consumers with Internet service - and while doing so also decided which sites you can browse for free, and which ones you have to pay extra to go to. They even collected part of the websites revenues for allowing users to access the sites.

Kind of a scary model. Especially if you are used to the notion of Free markets and capitalism. And technology innovation.

Hmm

Then I asked the audience which country I was speaking of? China? USSR? Iran?

No - I am talking about the US. And the Wireless industry.

Handsets are becoming our “hand held” computers. Already today, a handset typically has more processing power then yor Windows 95 machine had (Yes - go and compare the spec of 100MHZ 16MB RAM 486 machine with a handset that has ARM9, 200MHZ, Multimedia accelerator, camera and 64/64MB RAM).

If in 95 we spent a few hours a day in front of the computer, the handsets are our 24/7 computers and connections to the information highway. And it is being strictly controlled by four congolmerates through the result of outdated regulations. The battle for Net Neutrality should not be thought with the wireless providers - it has mostly been won there. Thereal Net Neutrality battle should be fought on the wireless front.

Which is why the Skype petition to the FCC is so critical. More on that later on.

The Skype petition to the FCC

Talked to a few people about it - and mentioned it during my panel today. Will write more in a few days - but want to do some more thinking first.  And now I need some sleep. VON - as always - has been a pretty excited, packed and thought provoking week.

R

Kipling on Enterprenurship

“I took the chances they wouldn’t, an’ now they’re calling it luck.”

One of my favorite poems is Kipling’s Mary Gloster. Its a pretty long one - and hard to read.  Nevertheless - I thought I will put down the begining down here. And you can always click to read the rest (and some translation to modern English is here )

The “Mary Gloster”

1894 by  Rudyard Kipling

---

I’VE paid for your sickest fancies; I’ve humoured your crackedest whim—
Dick, it’s your daddy, dying; you’ve got to listen to him!
Good for a fortnight, am I? The doctor told you? He lied.
I shall go under by morning, and—Put that nurse outside.
’Never seen death yet, Dickie? Well, now is your time to learn,
And you’ll wish you held my record before it comes to your turn.
Not counting the Line and the Foundry, the yards and the village, too,
I’ve made myself and a million; but I’m damned if I made you.
Master at two-and-twenty, and married at twenty-three—
Ten thousand men on the pay-roll, and forty freighters at sea!
Fifty years between ’em, and every year of it fight,
And now I’m Sir Anthony Gloster, dying, a baronite:
For I lunched with his Royal ’Ighness—what was it the papers had?
“Not least of our merchant-princes.” Dickie, that’s me, your dad!
I didn’t begin with askings. I took my job and I stuck;
And I took the chances they wouldn’t, an’ now they’re calling it luck.
Lord, what boats I’ve handled—rotten and leaky and old!
Ran ’em, or—opened the bilge-cock, precisely as I was told.
Grub that ’ud bind you crazy, and crews that ’ud turn you grey,
And a big fat lump of insurance to cover the risk on the way.
The others they dursn’t do it; they said they valued their life
(They’ve served me since as skippers). I went, and I took my wife.
Over the world I drove ’em, married at twenty-three,
And your mother saving the money and making a man of me.
I was content to be master, but she said there was better behind;
She took the chances I wouldn’t, and I followed your mother blind.
She egged me to borrow the money, an’ she helped me to clear the loan,
When we bought half shares in a cheap ’un and hoisted a flag of our own.
Patching and coaling on credit, and living the Lord knew how,…… More at http://whitewolf.newcastle.edu.au/words/authors/K/KiplingRudyard/verse/volumeXI/marygloster.html

Idani in the beach

Just love this photo!

VON / New media and “Channels”

@VON, the founder of Bittorrent argued that the “Channels” metaphor used by Joost is “out” and does not apply to new media. And as example brought his company website.

Is this correct? IMHO the way people watch TV is fundementaly different then how they interact with the computer. Active vs. Passive entertainment. Web navigation is active - try the homepage of bittorrent - how many options do you have - about 50-70 options you can click on to switch to the new screen. How may words ? How many images? This requires mental energy (minimal for most - but still energy) to analyze. And requires a decision. This is why it is “active” experience. Passive experience - think through your TV remote control. You can go up or down to switch channels (2 choices). Tivo - Up/Dn/Back/Select. iPOD - the same. These are more passive expiriences which are easier for the consumer and requires less mental energy.

Attempts to turn the living room TV into an active entertainment device ignore the consumer pshycology and the need that the TV fullfills - of “passive” entertainment. These are two different kind of entertainments that compete for our free time. And Channels are just an easy way to control your “passive” experience.

On the other hand - Tivo has succeded in expanding the passive expirience just enough so that it is still easy to use and requires minimal brain involvement, but it is reacher - ‘Tree’ like metaphor.

So where are we heading - Not a web like rich navigation but some richer version of the traditional cable TV. Probably something that is in between Tivo and Joost like experience.

Open source & Voip

I am participating in a panel on Monday re VOIP and open source. Couple of questions were sent as a prep… which made me think… first take. To be updated after the panel.

1) Is open source software the preferred flavor for VoIP devices? Why is this?

Hmm. If I were an Taiwanese ODM like Wwistron or a consumer electronics firm like Sony. And was planning a new VOIP powered device. What software stack will I be using? There are two criteria I would use. Time To Market and impact on BOM. What is the decision tree like? First comes decisiding between Linux vs MS CE. Linux wins: most of the chipset providers give you a full platform with Linux running on it and the VOIP protocols integrated. So unless you need some of the MSFT special stuff (Ooutlook / Office integration or Windows Media) there is no strong reason to go with MSFT.

But what next ? How do we build the rest of the device: the service and application layers. We can go all the way open source. Collect components from databses, UI engine, develop the widgets and so on. Or we can go with Trolltech QT. Thats where the time to market comes in. Yes - it hits you on the per-unit-roylaty. But if you take into account the risk of being late and losing a christmess season. Or how many engineers you need to collect all the components piece-meal togther. Then QT is the choice. And because it is open source, you get access to all the software stack and can modify it as needed. So we have full flexability.

Side thought - open source packages or getting better… from maemo to openmoko and others. So for low complexity / limited device road map full open source might be the way to go

1) How can open networks and open phones take share away from the telcos?

 

Telcos, in order to provide Voice service, control two elements in the value chain. The Access medium - be it cable or wireless frequencies. And the distribution of devices. Lets tak them one at a time

 

Access medium: As the Access medium is becoming more open and competitive - either through the allocation of new frequencies (Ex: WiMax) or open wireless access (WiFi) or a dumb pipe (Cable companies IP access + net Neutrality) the telcos hold on Access is weakened. For people in Western industrial societies, more majority of the day is spent in WiFi coverage. And this is getting higher and higher. So new players - from portals to startups to players in adjacent fields (content?) can now offer services - and voice services. And these new players are taking the share away from the telco. The portals are in particular good position to do so. Think os Skyp (Are they a portal? a Telco? MSFT acquiring TellMe..)

 

The key to offering those services is the device software. What are the device capabilities. And what is the “Start Menu” going to look like ? Whose voice service will the device use ? Is it open or not ?  This problem has a technology side - of being able to build the phones and have the service working. But then we need to distribute those devices. So Open Phone on it’s own it not sufficient. Traditional Telcos control the distribution and have little incentive to open a handset. Even if we had a completely open phone, there is a business challenge - which distributors / device manufactures have incentive to distribute the device as an open device?

1) What are open phones? Do they only work with WiFi networks?

This is a business question - $80 per month for unlimited data is GREAT for the operators. And give them plenty of cash to subsidize the device and the drive the upfront consumer spending to zero. But is this good for the end users overall ? Would you prefer to spend $80 * 12 month or $200 for device and $20 /month.

 

Interesting point about the wireless mobile world (which is often not noticed and still not being taken advantage of business wise) is that GSM devices can be certified by indpependent industry bodies and due to roaming agreements between carriers, a user can buy a GSM device, put their SIM card in and use it. If this device is using WiFi 90% of the time for voice,IM,Email TV and video and using GSM as backup for voice - that’s legit in most of the world (US the line is gray - some claim operators can decide to block such devices.)

 

4) How does open source software contribute to the velocity of innovation on mobile devices?

Most of the innovation on mobile devices has components that were done on the PC side and exist in some form in the open source community. So the software project is becoming more like lego piceses where you open source experience is almost like going to a mall and shopping. Example: We need to build a device that supports email and XMPP. We go to source forge and look around for POP3 stack. And teh databse. If its buggy, we can go into the code and fix it. Would need to put at many more engineers manage them and QA the components if it was not for open source. Yes - Its still software and you need to be very diligent in the quality of code you use (epseically in embedded devices) and sometimes its better to develop in-house then to bring a crappy code from the open sourec community into your device. Nevertheless - there is plenty of good, high quality code base to leverage in the community.

 

Around and around

So ‘Idani’ is finally (i) figured out how to slide down the slide. not conssitently - and tends to either go head first once in a while (I have to catch him) or leave a leg behind (kind of get stuck as he gets ready to slide down). But mostly the kid slides. Climbs back up. And slides again. Fun being a 15 month old…

It’s about time

To start putting some of my writing in my own blog. Not only in other people blogs… or heads.

Why “Brief” ? Because writing is not easy for me. English is my second language. And writing was never my strength. At the same time I will write a paragraph, my wife (who has an English degree among others) will finish a few pages of small font flawless prose.

So it will have to be brief

And why ‘rowing’ ?  Not sure if you have seen ‘The Emperor Club’ but if you have you might remember one of the early scenes. In which the narator explains that “Days that begin with rowing are better then days that do not”. True. So I am back to twice a week 0515 on the water.