Hold me back before I kill the M***R F**R! [re: Behavioral economics and Gaza]

I have seen a few of those typical middle east street scenes, with two men fighting in a market or a bar, and a crowed of people is around them. One of those dodos will typicaly scream “Hold me back.. hold me back before I kill the mother fucker” Well – why don’t you hold yourself back you always ask ? Because he cant. He is in the midst of it.

Obama’s appointment of Sunstein made me go back to my readings re behavioral economics, and how introduction of better understanding of human psychology transforms our understanding and analysis of economic theory.

 Wikipedia summarizes the foundations of B.E as follows:

Two of the main themes in behavioral finance and economics:^[9]

§  Heuristics: People often make decisions based on approximate rules of thumb, not strictly rational analysis. See also cognitive biases and bounded rationality.

§  Framing: The way a problem or decision is presented to the decision maker will affect his action.

So what happens when we apply the same three themes to political science and especially to democracy ? How do we expect democracies to function if people make decisions not based on strictly rational analysis? The Framing (i.e. media) of a problem effects people actions and people are making? How will the democracy function during a survival crisis when emotions are high and rationality goes out of the window ?

The best example is sadly the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For almost every outsider, the solution – dividing the land to two – is easy to recognize. But for a solution to be implemented, we need the insiders – the individuals in both countries to be able to recognize the solution, and we further need the political system on both side to be able to recognize, act and negotiate such a solution simultaneously.

 

Not surprisingly, for a deeply emotional topic – where almost every individual on either sides have strong personal pain points connecting them to the conflict, getting the individuals to recognize a solution is close to impossible. And we have not even discussed the political system on either sides, neither of them capable of electing or supporting a leader in making such decisions.

 In some other places on the globe, what was required was long period of ceasefire – allowing the pains to heal, rationality to come back and the right leaders to emerge on both sides to solve the conflict. But in such close quarters as the Israel, it seems like as time goes by, both sides are nose diving into each other, increasing the flames and the conflict over the years rather than calming it down.

 Which leads me toward thining that the only way forward will be if the international community – led by the US and the moderate Arab countries, both “gently impose” a solution on both parties.   And we might be surprised in how the leaders and the people on both sides will be releived to have such a solution imposed on them. It will have to be a delicate balance: Not imposing as in somebody holding a gun to your head an telling you what to do, but more like a parent holding his shy / histeric kid and walking him into a classroom… 

“I am not Bush” What McCain wanted to say but didnt…

“I am not Bush. If you wanted to run against him you should have done it four years ago…

I did run against him in 2000 (Were you in college then?). I should have been the president in 9/11 and if I was then the country would have looked much better now. But Bush swift boated me. And now he has left the country in such a mess that it’s impossible for anybody associated with Republicans to run to any public office.

And the mess we are in is not due to Republican ideology but rather due to Bush dishonesty, cronyism, and negative management skills. So no, I am not Bush and stop comparing me to him.”

 

That would have gotten the debate going… and McCain up in the polls.

 

To which Obama would have said “I fully agree with you regarding president Bush. And I even agree that if you were president in 2000 we would have been in a much better place right now. But a president cannot be separated from the party and mechanisms which elect him. You are part of the Republican party, always were and will continue to be if you were elected. And the mess we are in is also significantly due to republican ideology – the notion that free market and no regulation are the ultimate solution. Big, beaurocratic government is a problem. But “no government” is worse. Small, smart and selective regulation is the right way forward. And that’s the middle way which I am advocating and have been advocating for years.”

 

Unless we have another visit coming to us from Osama in the next three weeks, it Obama… and my bet is around 365-175.

McCain v2008. Lipstick on a pig

Also working on this one. But I feel it needs more work…

Palin Lipstick

I just had to put this one up…

Re: Goople

 

A few years ago, i was talking to somebody in Google and floated the idea of Google acquiring Apple. The reaction was something along the lines of “why should we?”. Well – it has been a few years since this conversation – and that is exactly the answer. While the merger between the giants might look good on paper – and can defintly excite a lot of reporters – in reality, the duo has been co-operating and reaping many of the mutual benefits that such a merger would bring them. Without having to go with all the monopolistic scrutiny, financial oversight and organization shock that a transaction would force them to go through. Or in other words – what else would you expect to see if the companies merged ?

As shown during the iPhone launch: “Apple introduced the iPhone today, and joining Steve Jobs onstage for about a minute was none other than Google CEO and Apple board member, Eric Schmidt.Schmidt was there to announce that Google Maps and Google search would be built into the iPhone”

Together, Google and Apple bring us the content we care about, on devices we care to have. This has huge impact for anybody thinking through the mobile or digital home space.

A conversation aboard a private jet

Last week, a Xoogler I know made some public comments about his fortunes… And how lucky he was to offload some of his stock when GOOG was at $600…

At the same week we made an announcement about Nokia intentions to acquire Trolltech – which as a result I received a few (funny?) emails assessing my interest in Ferraris. So for the record, no – I am not interested in one. Neither can I afford it.

Which reminded me of one of the most honest and insightful conversations I had on the topic

In 2001, while I was at OPWV, Chimene was still at Yale finishing her law degree. One of the executives I was close to @ OPWV was valued at the time in the few hundred $M range, and like many other execs had his own private jet. His family was in Boston, so to help the long distance relationship, I was sometimes invited to join him as he commuted back and forth to the East coast.

In one of those flights, as the two of seat happily seat in the jet @ 36K feet and sip wine he said … “you know Ram… I have made more money then I ever thought I will. And more then I probably deserved. Why? Luck. I was at the right place at the right time.”

If you dont realize that luck had a major part to the amount of money you made, you might mistakenly start attributing it to how smart you are. Which explains why there are so many over inflated egos around here. Or maybe how hard you have been working. Which might explain why there are so many workaholics here as well. But when you look deep down in it – yes, smartness and hard work play a role and are *required* elements – but most of the new Googlers, Facebookers, Youtuber, meSqlrs and the like should say thank you to Tyche

And if you wonder where the executive is today – he gave significant amounts of his fortune to orphanages in Easter Europe. Anonymously. And stepped out of high tech to spend in time helping others.

Snipers needed

In response to a few emails I received at work. I needed to vent. So decided some image editing was the right outlet.

Enjoy.

I already hired the services of a sniper (A Belgium buddy of mine…)

Two whales, Emperors, Yom Kippur and integrity

Since moving to the valley we have done a bit of synagogue shopping. Not that we go very often – we do not. Pretty much its Yom Kipper services once a year. And in the last three years I think we finally settled on Hillel @ Stanford.

This year, Rabbi Patricia Karlin-Neumann [rabbipkn at stanford dot edu] which both me and Chimene have learned to appriciate (And she is the main reason we chose Stanford Hillel), gave quite a thoughtful sermon about hmm.. whales. And Emperors. An more then anything – Integrity.

I had Idan with me – so was hard to follow. As I learned later on, two years old is the worst age to take a child with you to service. Especially if you just landed a few hours before and the kid has not seen you for a week. So after Naeelah, we chatted and she kindly agreed to share the text with me. So Here it is. And a teaser below.

And no – reading it – and reflecting about it – does not require being Jewish. Human yes. Jewish or religious – no.

“ This past May, California was riveted by the travels of two wayward humpback whales. A mother whale and her calf exited the Pacific Ocean and swam 90 miles inland up the Sacramento River. For over a week, amidst crowds of onlookers, the Coast Guard and wildlife experts attempted to coax the whales back to the ocean…

And you thought all those jokes about St. Peter at the Pearly Gates originated in the Vatican? Oh No – we have our own version! Since Yom Kippur is our rehearsal for that heavenly moment, we need to ask the four questions now and every year on this holy day. What do you think the rabbis imagined God would ask us? Questions like: Did we pray every day? Did we keep kosher? Did we celebrate Shabbat every week? Curiously, the questions they recorded had nothing to do with ritual practice. They had everything to do with integrity.”

Big brother and transparent society

I have been thinking through “Semi autonomous” systems for a while now.

Two trends coming together:

Metro wide wireless networks: with affordable IP connectivity. We know this one is coming. Wimax, WiFi, 7000Mhz and even 3G might be properly priced and open at some point.

The second is more tricky. Webcams are evolving. Not only a one way device that send video automatically but slowly adding a speaker – so you can watch what is happening and at the same time talk to the webcam surrounding. And soon they might have a screen – so you can display information. And you get some processing power in the unit – and move beyond just compressing video into motion detection, face recognition and more. Power / Solar technology is improving too, so soon we will be able to have stand along units that we can leave in our front yard or the city can easily install in any city corner. And the devices can monitor and interact with the surrounding. And if needed connect to a human “call” center and have a live person connected.

Whats the implications? Zero crime society ? Never being alone again ? Big brother always watching ? All of the above ?

David Brin has written on this about a decade ago.

The solution he outlines to the big brother is an “open” big brother where everybody can watch everybody and all the webcams are always open to all. Not a central closed monitoring system which only the city police have access to the videos, but an open one where there are no secrets. Opening up and allowing everybody to watch any webcam in real time is the best guarantee that the system will not be abused – because the information is alway shared. If a policeman arrests somebody, he knows very well that the whole event is being monitored, recorded and media and individuals can access the information.

The technology is moving ahead. And we will soon either find ourselves in a closed monitored world (which is the trend today) or in an open one. The cardinal question is what can be done to bring to life Brin’s vision of a transparent society ? Is the solution regulatory ? Or is there a business that can be built around providing the transparent society ?

R

Apples (New?) business model

Have been quite for the last eight weeks as we went through the Trolltech acuiqistion. So now that I am officially a Troll (and growing long hair) its time to  blog again

From ZDNet
“The 270,000 iPhones only include units sold to AT&T for distribution in its stores, units sold by Apple through its network of retail stores, and some number of units that might have been in transit as the clock turned on the third quarter, Oppenheimer said. An Apple representative confirmed the number doesn’t include online sales of the iPhone during the 30 hours before the quarter ended on 30 June.

Oppenheimer confirmed that Apple is receiving payments from AT&T related to the sale of iPhones, but he didn’t want to discuss the specifics of the agreement between the two companies. Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, believes AT&T is paying Apple about $11 a month per new iPhone customer, or about $3 a month for existing AT&T customers who switched to the iPhone “

Lets do some math.

.25M units first few weeks. So I think 5M Units first year is very conservative.

Lets say half are new AT&T subs and half are existing. That is $7/Month. $84/year.  Or $126 per device for 18 month life.

These are $126 of 100% margin to the bottom line. The iPhone margins are amazing as is (~$500 retail with $250 BOM)  but if you count the additional $126 per device – this kind of margins are unheard of in the handset world.

What would it do to Apple bottom line? I am on pushing my accounting skills here – but lets say $84 per year, 5M devices spread over a year, we are looking at additional $210M dollars for Apple on the iPhone business.  I think I should buy some stock…

Wonder what is going through Nokia top execs as they do this math…